Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
